Surf forecasts for beaches all round Australia.
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Minor ENE swell on the long-term horizon: We’ve seen a further degradation of long-term east-swell potential for the region into the middle of the month. As the aforementioned high will weaken as it shifts out across NZ’s North Island over the weekend, leading in a progressively weakening of the sub-tropical ridge. That now points to small to tiny levels of ENE tradewind swell, lingering around the 1 to occasional 2ft mark at the more exposed open beaches on Monday, Tuesday 15th and Wednesday 16th – and grading even smaller across the majority of open stretches.
The good news is we’re still looking at a more substantial round of south swell moving up the NSW mid to late next week. A deep mid-latitude low forecast to shift deep below the Tasman and NZ on Monday and Tuesday; setting up a broad WSW/SW flow in conjunction with a high over the eastern Bight. That looks like commencing with a steep rise in short-period, directional south swell on Tuesday 15th, backed up by small to mid-sized, long-period southerly groundswell on Wednesday/ Thursday 17th .
These later-stage developments are starting show a little more promise, with scope for long-period energy pulsing to powerful, but inconsistent 3 to 4ft levels across the region’s south-swell magnets on Wednesday and Thursday. Given the lead-time on the swells development we can expect further changes to the specifics on size and timing over the coming days – so this will become clearer on Monday.
Beyond that, the fringes of longer-term model guidance are hinting at a significant burst of northerlies developing across the western-central Tasman Sea over the weekend of Saturday 19th – stay tuned for more on this next week.